EFTA Document EFTA01475501

Subject: FW: Turkey and CNH [C] From: Paul Morris < IMI > Date: Mon, 02 Nov 2015 08:07:11 -0500 To: Vahe Stepanian Daniel Sabba Morning where is CDS this am? Original Message From: jeffrey E. [jeevacation@gmail.com] Sent: Monday, November 02, 2015 05:23 AM Eastern Standard Time To: Vahe Stepanian Cc: Daniel Sabba; Ariane Dwyer; Paul Morris; Stewart Oldfield; Richard Kahn Subject: Re: Turkey and CNH [C] there was an election this weekend? shouldnt that have been part of the analysis. a MAJOR part. an early check has your reccommendation down 7 % on the open. and that is the unleveraged play On Fri, Oct 30, 2015 at 11:27 AM, Vahe Stepanian wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey — we're following up our phone calls earlier this week with two trade ideas: 1) Buy Turkey 5y CDS — currently @ —253 It seems Turkey has rallied recently on the back of the broader macro EM rally and FOMC dovishness, although fundamentally not much has changed in Turkey General elections are taking place this weekend, which have created increased tension within Turkey and continue to generate headlines Recent opinion polls still point to another hung parliament (additional details in attached DB research piece) Outright short EM positions have cleaned up extensively and we believe it makes sense to slowly build out those positions Cheap funding has resulted in large rise in corporate debt in Turkey, some of which has been funded in foreign currency EFTA01475501 Turkey foreign reserves amongst lowest of EM countries, second only to Ukraine {cid:image001.png@01D11302.4255DA00} 2) Revisiting CNH as we know you're generally bearish Asian currencies. Given vols and skew, indicative pricing for ly, USD/CNH 6.5 — 7.0 call spread: Spot Ref: 6.3935 (pricing as of 10/27/15) Leg 1: European Option Call SOFL buys European USD Call on USD/CNH Strike: 6.5 Notional: USD 10,000,000 Expiry: Thu 27-Oct-2016 (ly) Premium: USD 287,100 (2.87%) Delta: 53% Strike vol: 6.24% Leg 2: European Option Call SOFL sells European USD Call on USD/CNH Strike: 7.0 EFTA01475502 Notional: USD 10,000,000 Expiry: Thu 27-Oct-2016 (1y) Premium: USD -127,100 (1.27%) Delta: 24% Strike vol: 9.15% Net premium: USD 160,000 (1.60%) Thank you, Vahe Vahe Stepanian Assistant Vice President I Key Client Partners Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Email All trade execution information contained herein is being provided as an accommodation at your request in advance of your receipt of the official trade confirmation(s). Additional trade detail information available upon request. The terms of the trade(s) may be subject to change prior to settlement, and therefore the official trade confirmation(s) and account statements issued by Deutsche Bank shall govern. Deutsche Bank is not responsible for any discrepancy between the informal execution report and the official trade confirmation(s) or account statements. This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication EFTA01475503 in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. please note The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of JEE Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to jeevacation@gmail.com, and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved EFTA01475504