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efta-01385481DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01385481
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DOJ Data Set 10
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January 2018
HY Corporate Credit
HY Multi Sector.Media. Cable & Satellite
In addition to building out existing licenses, mobile operators may also have
the opportunity to scoop up more spectrum in the coming years, particularly in
the mid-to-high band frequencies. The FCC has previously explored auctioning
off 150 MHz of 3.5 GHz although the process hasn't progressed and timing is
unclear. The FCC has agreed to auction off various mmWave bands (>28 GHZ
and higher). Most recently, Intelsat and Intel jointly responded to an FCC N0l
seeking to offer a commercial solution to freeing up some of its valuable C-
band spectrum 500 MHz of C-band (3.7-4.2 GHz), but FCC has yet to weigh in
on the proposal or set out a path forward. As we can see, the focus on mid-to-
high-band fits nicely with the carriers eyes set on 56 so we expect
conversations around freeing up more of those frequencies to heat up
throughout the year.
Competitive Landscape: Since the last round of major M&A in the wireless
industry back in 2013, which established the current 4-player national
landscape we know today, the market has not only seen stiff competition, but
a material shift in the way management teams have done business. T-Mobile's
Un-carrier initiatives created device financing plans, altered funding options,
and unleashed a slew of plan offerings that has pressured ARPUs for years.
Sprint and T-Mobile positioned themselves in the market as the mobile
companies with the best value, which opened up more GBs I $, and eventually
led the Big-2 to offer Unlimited plans at price points below existing plans while
also eliminating overages, which had a large impact especially in 1H17.
While it has been a difficult few years across the industry, lately we've seen
more rational behavior with respect to pricing. Sprint, who considers itself the
"price leader" in the industry, implemented a price increase in CY3Q17 with
the intent of raising prices again in corning quarters. Management has spoken
of service revenue inflection in the back-end of 2018 so we expect Sprint's
pricing to continue to improve from here. T-Mobile's pricing has been generally
stable all year and any future pressure in coming quarters will likely come from
contra-revenue items such as the recent Netflix add-on. We expect T-Mobile to
remain disciplined in pricing as it seeks to achieve its FCF CAGR guidance of
45-48% over the next 3 years. After taking big hits early on in the Unlimted
adoption and no overages phase, the Big-2 are moderating as well. Wireless
CPI trends have been more of less stable since April 2017 so the carrier
specific anecdotes and broader sentiments are being reflected in the macro
data.
The other sources of competition that are really coming into view now are the
cable companies. Three of the four largest cable companies in the US now
have some sort of agreements in place with a nationwide carrier to offer
wireless services over their network. In our opinion, the most at risk are the
Big-2 given their dominant market share in many geographies. The arrival of a
competing service utilizing the same infrastructure could put new pressure on
the likes of Verizon and AT&T, particularly since cable is primarily utilizing the
quad-play bundle to extend the lifetime value of customers and reduce churn
as opposed to chase profits.
Still at the center of the discussion around the future of wireless is DISH
Network. Another year goes by and DISH acquires more spectrum (low band
auction in January 2017) but also still keeps its strategy around a 5G
broadband network fairly mysterious. While we now know of their intention to
build a narrowband loT network, even this is likely a temporary step along an
evolutionary path to rolling out a true wireless 5G network of the future.
Chatter from earlier in the year on potential partners for DISH are not worth
repeating here. Our experience with the company over many years tells us
that talk surrounding DISH is never spurred by the company itself as senior
management is notoriously tight-lipped with everyone about anything strategic.
When will we know more? Well, our best guess does lead us to the back half
of 2018. With 5G standards progressing through 3GPP for both consumer as
Page 208
In lust a few than years the
focus of centers on spectrum has
gone from low and mid band to
mid and high band and ultra-
high band frequent Not too
long ago Sprint's 26 GHz
spectrum
was
considered
commercially challenged now it
is in a sweet spot
Verizon end AT&T have been
dragged into the world of truly
unlimited data and are re-pridng
their existing base of ARPU:
The industry has seemingly taken
a pause In
terms of Its
competitive intendw, bringing
about more rational behavior
with respect to pridng.
It remains to be seen whether
abS's entry Into wireless wail
allow It to truly grow revenue
(offense) or simply Mt lower
chum In the bundle (defense).
Either way, cable seems to be
here to stay
DISH all feeb threat* of a
mystery, with much of its forum
plans all shrouded In secrecy.
We do that let the beck half of
2018 k a sensible timeline
around whkt we might see
more concrete for around DISH',
plans for the Mum &Its wirekes
broadband SG network
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
CONFIDENTIAL
DB-SDNY-0086767
SDNY_GM_00232951
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