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efta-01385482DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01385482
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3 January 2018
HY Corporate Credit
HY Multi Sector.Media, Cable & Satellite
well as loT offerings, and DISH acknowledging broad discussions with tower
companies about potential coverage build out options, we believe DISH's
strategic direction needs to be far more obvious by the back half of 2018 or the
technology and asset advantage it has (fallow, unused spectrum without any
legacy technology or subscribers) will begin to lessen as other carriers
scramble to make up for technology or spectrum shortfalls by leading with
experience and quickly playing catch-up. We still think that Ergen and DISH
are very well positioned for the future of wireless.
Wireline. Underweight Relative to the DB Index
Annus Hornbills... that's how we would define 2017 for fixed line, specifically
the RLECs.
The question is whether 2017 unearthed issues that can be
reversed or whether 2017 was the year where the shine of what used to be a
defensive sector was revealed to be an underlying business in serious trouble.
For the most part, we think the latter as it relates to consumer and SMB
revenue. We don't expect any real change in 2018 and believe investors will
be incrementally focused on what trends actually present themselves in results
as opposed to giving management the benefit of the doubt regarding future
aspirations. Admittedly, it's a tall order turning these businesses around giving
the secularly declining nature of the industry. Each of the three major LECs in
HY altered or reduced guidance at some point in 2017. Frontier originally
guided to $4 billion of EBITDA before walking back from that figure throughout
the year and then speaking about a $3.8 billion run-rate number, which itself
appears aspirational. CenturyLink fought the skepticism of the market all year
by reiterating guidance that seemed ambitious in 1H17 but after it missed
guidance in 3O CTL was forced to reduce full year guidance at the same time it
was closing on its LVLT deal. Windstream left its published guidance
unchanged despite including the impact from the Broadview transaction,
implying a drop in its legacy EBITDA guidance given that Broadview was
guided to contributing positive run-rate EBITDA. Then to top it off, an activist
debt investor got Windstream embroiled in a debate over the legitimacy of its
series of transactions involving the creation of Uniti (f/k/a Communication
Sales and Leasing). This Issue remains before the courts with a final timeline
likely not decided until sometime in late 1O18. A year to forget, though that
might not be possible.
Business Trends: The secular declines that have plagued the industry should
continue and potentially accelerate
for some segments. Competing
technologies appear to be biting at the RLECs from all sides. Residential and
SMB, particularly DSL customers, are struggling to compete with cable and we
also see some evidence of satellite trying to attack the low end of the market,
though cost conscious consumers would be more likely to stick with DSL.
Comcast and Charter are investing heavily in their networks, raising minimum
speeds, and are / will offer quad-play packages including wireless
subscriptions as a result of their MVNOs with Verizon. The attractive speeds,
pricing, and bundling will likely have some negative impact on both gross adds
and churn for the telcos going forward. In addition to cable. Verizon is
preparing to deploy 5G fixed wireless in 3-5 markets with the goal of a larger
build-out should the product catch on. Even if successful, we don't expect
Verizon to blanket the footprints of most of the LECs, but the denser parts of
CenturyLink's and Frontier's footprint could be at some risk. Finally, satellite
continues to creep in the background with EchoStar and ViaSat both capable
of delivering competitive speeds to the rural markets, though as we said earlier
- price is probably an issue that sits in the RLECs favor (DSL pricing well below
the price for similar speeds in satellite).
What is the way out of this
conundrum? The only one we see is accelerated capital spending. We are
reminded of the bold moves undertaken by Cincinnati Bell several years ago
when it felt the competitive pressures intensifying in its businesses. CBB made
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
AN three RLECs cut guidance or
Implied guidance In some way
shape or lam.
Unfortunately,
we do not believe the issues that
Impacted 2017 were either an
anomaly or easily corrected In
the Mite. Some of the bonds of
WIndensam and Frontier am
down over 20 points In 201Z
with CM bonds also down but
materially
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the
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How an the Slushy tip itself
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LECs
The missed opportunAy
for some companies was In
turning off dividends much
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For many,
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Page 209
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
CONFIDENTIAL
DB-SDNY-0086768
SDNY_GM_00232952
EFTA01385482
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