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efta-efta01385361DOJ Data Set 10CorrespondenceEFTA Document EFTA01385361
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January 2018
HY Corporate Credit
HY Multi Sector.Media. Cable & Satellite
total cash burn of $1 million in 2018. Using our projected total debt of $11.25
billion and cash interest of $603 million, we estimate MGM will end the year
with leverage of 4.5x and coverage of 4.1x. Factoring consolidated cash of
$2.00 billion, we estimate net leverage at 3.7x.
Downside risks to our call include lower-than-expected convention volumes,
unfavorable table hold in Macau may lead to EBITDA coming in below
expectations.
MGM Growth Properties. We continue to believe that MGP will continue to
utilize its premium valuation, ample liquidity, and low-cost debt to complete
leverage neutral acquisitions. While we expect MGP to engage in transactions
with additional tenants besides MGM, we believe the most immediate
opportunity for the company is to acquire joint venture properties. In addition
to an embedded negotiating edge, these acquisitions may play a significant
role in making MGM a simpler story. A transaction with CityCenter or an
acquisition of MGM Springfield is a simple avenue for growth. At this juncture,
we are reaffirming our Buy rating on MGP's 5.625% Senior Unsecured Notes
2024 ($107.2, 4.3% Y7VV, 191bps STW) and MGP's 4.5% Senior Unsecured
Notes 2026 (5100.5, 4.4% Y1W, 205bps S1VV).
[Exhibit 5: MGM Growth Proper ties (5, Millions.)
2016(A)
LTM
2017(E)
2018(E)
Adjusted EN1
$407
$644
$669
$751
Capital Expenditures
0
0
0
0
Dividends
151
378
385
460
Interest Expanse
63
170
170
160
Free Cash Flow
$174
61)6
$104
6131
Debt
$3.683
$4.000
$3.972
$3,842
Cash
360
235
235
235
Unread,
9.0x
6.2x
0.0x
5.1x
Come
49x
3.8x
39x
4.7x
Net Lawns
8/x
5.8x
53x
4.88
Son tompry Merge ex, Ditirsch• Brit
For 2017, we project MGP to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $659 million
(versus $407 million). Factoring in dividends of $385 million and interest
expense of 8170 million, we expect MGP to generate free cash flow of $104
million. Based on an estimated total debt of $3.97 billion, we anticipate
leverage at 6.0x at the end of the year. Factoring in a cash balance of $235
million, we estimate net leverage of 5.7x.
For 2018, we project MGP to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $751 million
(+14.0% versus $659 million). Factoring in dividends of $460 million and
interest expense of $160 million, we expect MGP to generate free cash flow of
$131 million. Based on an estimated total debt of $3.84 billion, we anticipate
leverage at 5.1x at the end of the year. Factoring in a cash balance of $235
million, we estimate net leverage of 4.8x.
Downside risks include (1) tenant and geographic concentration, (2) the
business model's reliance on capital markets for acquisitions, and (3) a
perceived lack of independence given MGM's ownership. Upside risks: MGP
reducing its leverage with the proceeds from an equity offering.
Page 86
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0086645
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00232829
EFTA01385361
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