EFTA Document EFTA01459564

2 Our Consumption Assumption Shop `tit You Drop America (and the World!) Solid Global Confidence 90 83 - 70 - 03 - Mar-04 Nov-05 Jul-07 Mar-09 Nov-10 Jul-12 Mar-14 Nov-15 Global Consumer Confidence Global consumer confidence has continued to improve and is hovering at pre-crisis highs. In addition, the Chinese consumer is becoming a bigger contributor to growth. From 2009 to 2030, the Chinese middle class is expected to grow from 11% to 72% of the total population. Better U.S. spending, increased spending from the Chinese economy and a better European economy support the global consumer discretionary sector. Footnote- •';lobslconsum.e: confidence Is the average of U.S., Japan. China am; Europe. Data rs most recent available as of November 2015. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management Deutsche Bank Wealth Mormgerneht Chinese Middle Class Growing 100% 1 70%J, 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Poor Middle Class Rich .2009 .2020 ■2030 Source: World Bank, Devische Bank Global Markets. Deutsche Bank Wean Management Europeans Spending Again 20.0% 15.0% • 10.0% 5.0% • 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15O% -25.0% Jun-04 Dec-05 Jun-07 Dec-08 Jun-10 Dec-11 Jun-13 Dec-14 —Europe New Passenger Car Registrations (6 Mo Moving Average) (LHS) —Eurostat Retail Sales (YoY) (RHS) Footnotes: Data is monthly and most recent as of December 2015. Source. Bloomberg Finance Deutsche Sank Wealth Management 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 6 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0 120055 SDNY_GM_00266239 EFTA01459564