EFTA Document EFTA01459565

Monetary Policy Divergence "Two Roads Diverged in a Wood, and I Took the one Less Traveled." Fed Takes off Training Wheels reavgnr ts4EEtr.'2 4. • .•'\-i,r* :•‘9;re.. fr is. • an • l es? A• - As the Fed has taken the "training wheels" off the U.S. economy, we expect increased volatility. Footnotes: Chip Bok Editorial Cartoon used with the permission of Chiµ Bok and Creators Syndicate. All rights reserved. Source: The CartoonistGroup. Deutsche Bank Wealth Management. Deutsche Bank Wealth Mnniloement Expect More Volatility Tightening # of Day Cycle 3-4.99% 5.00.9.99% 10% or More Average of all Pullbacks 3.64-8.64 147 2 0 -5.2% 12,86-9/87 262 0 3 0 -6.4% 368-2,89 332 1 3 0 -63% 294-2/95 363 1 3 0 -6.0% 699-900 321 0 4 -9.2% 604-606 729 2 4 0 -5.7% C"—--Average S&P 500 Pullbacks When looking at the most recent tightening cycles, they last, on average, one year and see at least one S&P 500 pullback of 3-5% and three pullbacks of 5-10%. The only tightening cycle that experienced a more than 10% decline was in 2000. Footnotes Time period is considered a tightening cycle. when the Fed raises rates three or more consecutive times. The tightening cycle is considered over at the last rate hike. # of days is calendar days. SSP 500 price only. Source. Bloomberg Finance LP. Deutsche Bank Wealth Management 11 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0 120060 SDNY_GM_00266244 EFTA01459565